15 December 2009 Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

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Red’s Bull Alert: The closing levels Monday on the DJIA and the S&P 500 represent 14 month highs, and the NAS ended at its highest level in 15 months.

Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the session ending 14 December 2009

US Stocks closed on 14 month highs Monday, as Citi announced plans to repay US$20B in TARP funds, on the back of B of A full repayment of UD$45B, Exxon Mobil announced the buy out of XTO Energy for US$30B + debt and Abu Dhabi coming to the table for its Gulf neighbor Dubai to the tune of US$14B +.

The DJIA added 29.55 pts, or 0.28%, to close at 10,501.05, the S&P 500 rose 7.70 pts, or 0.70%, to close at 1,114.11, and the NAS tallied up + 21.79 pts, or 0.99%, to end the session at 2,212.10.
Sun Microsystems Inc (covered in Stock Talk today) shares jumped 11% to $9.28 on NAS after European Union regulators signaled they could clear Oracle Corp’s US$7B takeover. Oracle’s stock rose 2.3% to $23.31.
Visa Inc (covered in Stock Talk today) shares rose 4.2% to $84.77 on the NYSE after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said late Friday that it will join the S&P 500 after the close of trading on December 18th.
Advancing Sectors: Materials (+1.5%), Industrials (+1.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.9%), Health Care (+0.9%), Tech (+0.9%), Financials (+0.6%), Utilities (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Energy (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.1%)
Volume and Breadth: trade was light on the NYSE, with 1.07B/shrs changing hands, below last year’s estimated daily average of 1.49B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 1.85B/shrs traded, below last year’s daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by about 3 to 1, and on the NAS, about 2 stocks rose for every 1 that fell.
Stocks to Watch Today
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), Sun Microsystems, Inc. (JAVA), Visa, Inc. (V).
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) Up-date 17 Last Look: October 7, 2009
December 15 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Dear Reader,
Let’s have a look at Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the giant Gold and Copper miner, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (December 14, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Gold prices rise on the sinking USD and Russia buying more Gold

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10645049/1/gold-price-rises-as-russia-buys.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Monday’s Market Action Close 78.84 + 2.03 Volume 8,662,000/shrs
There are three Gaps open up between July 30 and October 6, 2009 at 59.93/68.55, the near term resistance is 80.70, support at 78.08, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 78.37.
This is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX): Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Inc. engages in the exploration, mining, and production of mineral properties primarily in Indonesia, North America, South America, and Africa. It focuses on the copper, gold, molybdenum, and silver prospects. The company holds interests in the Grasberg open pit and Deep Ore Zone projects in Indonesia. It also owns interests in the Grasberg, Kucing Liar, Mill Level Zone/Deep Mill Level Zone, and Big Gossan projects in Indonesia. In addition, the company holds interests in the Morenci project in Greenlee County, Arizona; the Safford project in Graham County, Arizona; the Bagdad project in Yavapai County in west-central, Arizona; the Sierrita project in Pima County, Arizona; the Miami project in Gila County, Arizona; the Chino and Tyrone project in southwestern New Mexico in Grant County; the Henderson project located approximately 42 miles west of Denver, Colorado; and the Climax molybdenum mine in Colorado, which are located in North America. Further, it owns interests in the Cerro Verde project located 20 miles southwest of Arequipa, Peru; the Candelaria project situated approximately 12 miles south of Copiapo in northern Chiles Atacama province; the Ojos del Salado project located approximately 10 miles east of Copiapo in northern Chiles Atacama province; the El Abra project situated 47 miles north of Calama in Chiles El Loa province, which are located in South America. Additionally, the company holds interests in the Tenke Fungurume project in the Democratic Republic of Congo; and the Atlantic Copper project in Huelva, Spain. At December 31, 2007, it had total consolidated recoverable proven and probable reserves of approximately 93.2 billion pounds of copper; 41.0 million ounces of gold; 2.0 billion pounds of molybdenum; 230.9 million ounces of silver; and 0.6 billion pounds of cobalt.
The Competitive Landscape
Demand is driven by industrial demand and economic growth, both domestic and foreign. Individual company profitability depends on volume and operating efficiency. Large companies can afford to discover and develop new deposits and increase reserves. Small companies typically own just one mine, limit exploration to that one property, and operate it as efficiently as possible. Metal ore mining is highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$300,000.

Metal Ore Mining Industry Forecast
The output of US metal mining is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 5.4 % between 2008 and 2013.
Freeport-McMoRan (HQ)
Chief Exec. Officer, Pres Richard C. Adkerson
One North Central Avenue
Phoenix, AZ 85004-4414
United States
Phone: 602-366-8100
http://www.fcx.com
Freeport-McMoRan Subsidiaries
Atlantic Copper, S.A., Chino Mines Company and Climax Molybdenum Company

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) Up-date 6 Last look: August 6, 2009
December 15, 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Today, let’s look at Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS), the international casino/resort operator, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (December 14, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick Analysis is: Very Bullish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Casino Stocks Gain on CityCenter

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10645435/1/casino-stocks-gain-on-citycenter.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Monday’s Market Action Close 16.31 + 1.10 Volume 26,738,700/shrs
There is a Homing Pigeon on December 11, and, are two Gaps open up between July 15 and July 20, 2009 at 7.20/8.96, the near term resistance is 16.73, support at 15.04, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 15.98.
This is Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS): The Venetian Casino Resort (owned by Las Vegas Sands) brings a touch of Venice to the Las Vegas Strip. Replete with gondoliers and a replica of the Rialto Bridge, the Venetian offers a 120,000-sq.-ft. casino and a 4,000-suite hotel, as well as a shopping, dining, and entertainment complex. Las Vegas Sands also operates the Congress Center conference facility that links the casino to the nearby Sands Expo Center trade show and convention center. In addition, the firm operates The Sands Macao casino in China, and The Palazzo Casino next door to the Venetian in Las Vegas. Chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson and trusts for his family own nearly 70% of the firm.

The Competitive Landscape
Growth in consumer income and state spending has driven expansion of the US gambling industry. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and effective marketing. Large operators have the financial resources to make large investments in facilities and efficient computer operations, and have cross-marketing opportunities. Small gambling facilities can thrive by catering to a local clientèle. The industry is fairly labor-intensive: annual revenue per employee is US$90,000.
Gambling Operations Industry Forecast

USA personal consumption expenditures for participant amusements and pari-mutuel net receipts, which include gambling operations, are forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 5 % between 2008 and 2013.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. (HQ)
Chairman, CEO, and Treasurer Sheldon G. Adelson
3355 Las Vegas Blvd. South
Las Vegas, NV 89109
United States
Phone: 702-414-1000
Fax: 702-414-4884
http://www.lasvegassands.com

Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation Up-date 1 Last Look: May 27, 2009
December 15, 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Today, let’s look at Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL), the Company with Golden Brands, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (December 14, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Better Buy: Phillips-Van Heusen or Polo Ralph Lauren?

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/12/09/better-buy-pvh-or-rl.aspx
Monday’s Market Action Close 81.87 + .67 Volume 445,900/shrs
There is a Hammer on December 14 and two Gaps up between September 8, and December 10, 2009, the near term resistance is 83.28 support at 81.56, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 77.07.
This is Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (RL): The Company with golden mallet brands such as Polo by Ralph Lauren, RRL, Rugby, and Club Monaco, the firm designs and markets apparel and accessories, home furnishings, and fragrances. Its collections are available at some 10,800 locations worldwide, including many upscale and mid-tier department stores. (Macy’s and Dillard’s account for more than a third of all wholesale revenue.) The company also operates about 315 Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco, and Rugby retail stores worldwide as well as the e-commerce sites www.RalphLauren.com and www.Polo.com . American style icon and CEO Lauren controls the Company.

Competitive Landscape
Demand is largely determined by consumer tastes and the comparative costs of manufacture in the US and overseas. The profitability of individual companies depends on operation efficiency and the ability to secure contracts with clothing marketers. Small companies can compete effectively with large ones by specializing in a particular type of apparel manufacture. There are few economies of scale in manufacture, because of the high labor content of most apparel. The industry is labor-intensive: average annual revenue per production worker is about US$125,000.
Apparel Manufacture Industry Forecast
The output of US apparel manufacturing, including knit and sewn apparel and accessories, is forecast to decline at an annual compounded rate of 4% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008
Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (HQ)
Ralph Lauren Chairman and Chief Exec. Officer
650 Madison Avenue
New York, NY 10022
United States
Phone: 212-318-7000
Fax: 212-318-7690
http://www.ralphlauren.com

Sun Microsystems, Inc. (JAVA) Up-date 5 Last Look: November 6, 2009
December 15, 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Today, let’s look at Sun Microsystems, Inc. (JAVA), the leading maker of UNIX based servers, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (December 14, 2009) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Bearish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Bearish
**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: EU regulators softening stance on Oracle-Sun; Oracle pledges support for Sun database
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/EU-regulators-softening-apf-111216304.html?x=0&.v=2
Monday’s Market Action Close 9.28 + .92 Volume 144,215,900/shrs
There a Bearish Harami on December 10 and one Gap open up on December 14, 2009 at 8.52/9.02 the near term resistance is 9.36, support at 9.20, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 8.62.
This is Sun Microsystems, Inc. (JAVA): A leading maker of UNIX-based servers used to power corporate computer networks and Web sites, it also makes workstation computers and disk- and tape-based storage systems. Sun’s computers utilize the company’s own chips (SPARC) and operating system (Solaris). Its software portfolio includes application server, database management, office productivity, and network management applications. Sun also developed Java, a cross-platform programming language used to create applications for computers, Web browsers, mobile phones, and other consumer electronic devices.
The Competitive Landscape
Demand is tied to consumer and business income. The profitability of individual computer companies depends on purchasing and production efficiencies, and on technological expertise. Large companies have economies of scale in purchasing and production. Small companies can compete successfully by specializing in certain products or by developing superior technology. The industry is capital-intensive and highly automated: annual revenue per employee is about US$500,000.

Computer Manufacture Industry Forecast
The output of US computer manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4.7% between 2008 and 2013.
Sun Microsystems, Inc. (HQ)
Co-Founder and Chairman Scott G. McNealy
4150 Network Circle
Santa Clara, CA 95054
United States
Phone: 650-960-1300
Fax: 650-336-0646
http://www.sun.com

Visa, Inc. (V) Up-date 2 Last Look: July 28, 2009
December 15, 2009
Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst
Today let’s look at Visa, Inc. (V), the operator of the World’s largest consumer payment system, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Monday’s (December 14, 2009) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Very Bullish, and long term Very Bullish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com
Latest News and Opinion: Visa’s Stock Rallies on Upgrade and S&P Addition
http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/industries/finance/visas-stock-rallies-upgrade-sp-addition/
Monday’s Market Action Close 84.77 + 3.43 Volume 17,624,700/shrs
There is a DOJI on December 14, and 5 Gaps open up between July 15, and December 14, 2009 at 60.51/83.49, the near term resistance is 86.25, support at 82.90, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 78.77 .
This is Visa, Inc. (V): Visa operates the world’s largest consumer payment system (ahead of MasterCard and American Express) with some 1.6 billion credit and other payment cards in circulation. It licenses the Visa name to member institutions, which issue and market their own Visa products and participate in the VisaNet payment system (authorization, transaction processing, and settlement services). Visa also provides its customers with debit cards, Internet payment systems, value-storing smart cards, and traveler’s checks. Visa Inc., which was created by a restructuring of several Visa organizations, went public in 2008 and raised about US$17B.

Industries Where Visa Inc Competes
Financial Services
Transaction, Credit & Collections
Electronic Payment Systems (primary)
Lending
Credit Cards

Visa, Inc. (HQ)
Joseph W. Saunders, Exec. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
P.O. Box 8999
San Francisco, CA 94128-8999
United States
Phone: 415-932-2100

http://www.corporate.visa.com
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US Stock Market Re-cap for the week ending 7 December 2009

On the Day Friday: The DJIA gained 22.75 pts, or 0.22%, to close at 10,388.90, the S&P 500 added 6.06 pts, or 0.55%, to close at 1,105.98, and the NAS tallied up a + 21.21 pts, or 0.98%, to end the session at 2,194.35.

On the Week: The DJIA rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 posted +1.3% and the NAS tallied up a + 2.6%.

The S&P 500 Sector Summary: 9 of the 10 sectors posted gains, led by utilities (+3.9%), telecom (+2.4) and financials (+2.3%). Commodity-related stocks underperformed, with energy losing 1.5% on the week.

US equities got a boost from US government data showing inventories at US factories rose for the 1st time in over a year in October, and factory orders increased 0.6%. This is always a Key indicator in a recovery from my POV going back to the 60’s when I started to look at it.

The NAS got a boost from chipmakers, including Intel Corp, which advanced after an upbeat forecast from TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chip maker. Intel’s stock gained 3% to US$20.46. The semiconductor index was up 2.1% on the day, and on the week, the SOXX climbed 8.2%, its biggest one-week percentage gain since July. This is also a Key indicator in our recovery, as the Tech’s lead.

Falling commodity prices weighed on natural resource companies, sending the S&P materials index down 1.2 percent and the S&P energy index down 0.8 percent.

The US employment report came in better than expected on all the major metrics. Employers pink slipped 11,000 nonfarm jobs in November, way less than the 125,000 median estimate, + prior months were revised lower, as the US unemployment rate declined to 10.0%, from a previous reading of 10.2%.

In a Key move, the Bank of America announced it will repay US$45B in TARP funds.

The US Federal Reserve has kept US benchmark interest rates close to Zero Per Cent to foster and keep the recovery on track. Some pundits are saying this has to stop soon, perhaps but I do not believe the Fed’s position will change until late 2010 and perhaps not until 2012 when the world’s recovery is well on its Road.

The USD index, which measures the “Greenback” against a basket of 6 major currencies, jumped 1.5% on the upbeat jobs data Friday.

Gold prices hit a record high of US$1226 oz, but closed out the week at US$1161 oz Friday on a USD rally following a better than expected jobs report.

Crude Oil prices fell 0.5% on the week by 99 cents to settle at US$75.47 bbl.

In Commodity Trading, the CRB Index was active last week, with movements magnified by sharp swings in the USD.

The broad market hit a bottom on 9 March, and since then stocks and the USD have had a definite inverse correlation, i.e.: when the USD falls, equities and commodities tend to rise and vice versa.

That correlation partly reflects the action in the “Carry Trade”, i.e.: investors borrow a currency that offers relatively low borrowing costs in order to invest the proceeds in higher yielding assets denominated in that low yield currency.

The strong US Dollar action on Friday caused investors to unwind some of their USD “Carry Trade” positions.

Volume and Breadth: trade was above average Friday on the NYSE, with 1.57B/shrs changing hands, above last year’s estimated daily average of 1.49 B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 2.32B/shrs traded, above last year’s daily average of 2.28B/shrs. Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE 7 to 3, and on the NAS about 10 stocks rose for every 3 that fell.

Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
DJIA 10309.92 10388.90 78.98 0.8 18.4
NAS 2138.44 2194.35 55.91 2.6 39.1
S&P 500 1091.49 1105.98 14.49 1.3 22.4
Russell 2000 577.21 602.79 25.58 4.4 20.7

Stocks to Watch Today

Bank of America (BAC), Intel Corporation (INTC), JDS Uniphase Corporation (JDSU), Marvell Technology Group (MVRL), and Morgan Stanley (MS).

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